BTC 2026 价格概率分布 | ladderquant.com

▲ 上行概率 (2026年触及 ≥ 价格)

$1000K

1.6%

$114K

$500K

1.9%

$134K

$250K

5.0%

$3.7M

$200K

5.5%

$686K

$190K

6.5%

$343K

$180K

6.5%

$318K

$170K

6.5%

$198K

$160K

8.0%

$314K

$150K

10.5%

$626K

$140K

11.5%

$568K

$130K

15.0%

$582K

$120K

21.5%

$451K

$110K

30.0%

$488K

$100K

42.5%

$878K

$90K

已实现

$23K

$85K

已实现

$12K

$80K

已实现

$89K

$75K

已实现

$1.1M

▼ 下行概率 (2026年跌至 ≤ 价格)

$70K

已实现

$44K

$65K

已实现

$1.5M

$60K

已实现

$44K

$55K

65.5%

$1.5M

$50K

57.5%

$238K

$45K

44.0%

$1.5M

$40K

35.5%

$164K

$35K

22.0%

$1.3M

$30K

15.5%

$43K

$25K

13.0%

$453K

$20K

9.5%

$101K

$15K

7.0%

$3.7M

$10K

6.2%

$154K

$5K

4.0%

$19K