BTC 2026 价格概率分布 | ladderquant.com

▲ 上行概率 (2026年触及 ≥ 价格)

$1000K

0.8%

$1.3M

$500K

2.2%

$1.2M

$250K

2.9%

$5.0M

$200K

3.5%

$1.7M

$190K

3.9%

$538K

$180K

3.9%

$408K

$170K

4.3%

$306K

$160K

6.5%

$471K

$150K

7.5%

$927K

$140K

10.5%

$855K

$130K

11.5%

$974K

$120K

14.5%

$753K

$110K

17.5%

$947K

$100K

34.5%

$1.7M

$90K

已实现

$23K

$85K

已实现

$12K

$80K

已实现

$776K

$75K

已实现

$1.1M

▼ 下行概率 (2026年跌至 ≤ 价格)

$70K

已实现

$44K

$65K

已实现

$1.5M

$60K

已实现

$44K

$55K

55.5%

$3.1M

$50K

41.5%

$1.2M

$45K

31.5%

$2.7M

$40K

23.5%

$710K

$35K

17.5%

$2.2M

$30K

14.5%

$371K

$25K

10.5%

$855K

$20K

6.5%

$372K

$15K

5.3%

$4.8M

$10K

4.0%

$614K

$5K

3.0%

$555K